Title: When will current climate extremes affecting maize production become the norm?
Authors: ZAMPIERI MATTEOCEGLAR ANDREJDENTENER FRANCISCUSDOSIO ALESSANDRONAUMANN GUSTAVOVAN DEN BERG MAURITSTORETI ANDREA
Citation: EARTHS FUTURE vol. 7 no. 2 p. 113-122
Publisher: WILEY-BLACKWELL
Publication Year: 2019
JRC N°: JRC107472
ISSN: 2328-4277 (online)
URI: https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF000995
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC107472
DOI: 10.1029/2018EF000995
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: We estimate the effects of climate anomalies (heat stress and drought) on annual maize production, variability, and trend from the country level to the global scale using a statistical model. Moderate climate anomalies and extremes are diagnosed with two indicators of heat stress and drought computed over maize growing regions during the most relevant period of maize growth. The calibrated model linearly combines these two indicators into a single Combined Stress Index. The Combined Stress Index explains 50% of the observed global production variability in the period 1980–2010. We apply the model on an ensemble of high‐resolution global climate model simulations. Global maize losses, due to extreme climate events with 10‐year return times during the period 1980–2010, will become the new normal already at 1.5 °C global warming levels (approximately 2020s). At 2 °C warming (late 2030s), maize areas will be affected by heat stress and drought never experienced before, affecting many major and minor production regions.
JRC Directorate:Sustainable Resources

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