Trends in European flood risk over the past 150 years

Adverse consequences of floods change in time and are influenced by both natural and socioeconomic trends and interactions. In Europe, previous studies of historical flood losses corrected for demographic and economic growth (‘normalized’) have been limited in temporal and spatial extent, leading to an incomplete representation of trends in losses over time. Here we utilize a gridded reconstruction of flood exposure in 37 European countries and a new database of damaging floods since 1870. Our results indicate that, after correcting for changes in flood exposure, there has been an increase in annually inundated area and number of persons affected since 1870, contrasted by a substantial decrease in flood fatalities. For more recent decades we also found a considerable decline in financial losses per year. We estimate, however, that there is large under reporting of smaller floods beyond most recent years, and show that underreporting has a substantial impact on observed trends.

PAPROTNY Dominik;  SEBASTIAN Antonia;  MORALES NAPOLES Oswaldo;  JONKMAN Sebastian; 

2019-04-02

NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP

JRC108785

2041-1723 (online),   

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04253-1,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC108785,   

10.1038/s41467-018-04253-1 (online),