Identifying Hot Spots of Critical Forage Supply in Dryland Nomadic Pastoralist Areas: A Case Study for the Afar Region, Ethiopia
This study develops a methodology to identify hot spots of critical forage supply in
nomadic pastoralist areas, using the Afar Region, Ethiopia, as a special case. It addresses two main
problems. First, it makes a spatially explicit assessment of fodder supply and demand extracted
from a data poor environment. Fodder supply is assessed by combining rainfall-based production
functions and rule-based assessment for prevailing land use. Fodder demand is based on a data
consistency check of livestock statistics concerning herd size, composition and geographical
distribution. Second, individual herd movements have to be evaluated jointly in concurrent
migration patterns to assess local pressures on fodder resources. We, therefore, apply a transition
model that relates stock levels to seasonal migration routings for all Afar sub-clans jointly so as to
localize the hot spots where feed demand exceeds forage supply. Critical areas come to the fore,
especially, near fringes of Highlands and in the southern part of the Afar. A sensitivity test shows
that ‘Baseline’ scenario is close to the ‘Best’ but under ‘Worst’, the Afar region would fall into
despair. We conclude that the model is a useful tool to inform policy makers on critical areas in the
Afar region.
SONNEVELD B.G.J.S.;
VAN WESENBEECK C.F.A.;
KEYZER Michiel Alexander;
BEYENE F.;
GEORGIS K.;
URBANO Ferdinando;
MERONI Michele;
LEO Olivier;
YIMER M.K.;
ABDULLATIF M.;
2017-12-04
MDPI AG
JRC109067
2073-445X,
http://www.mdpi.com/2073-445X/6/4/82,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC109067,
10.3390/land6040082,
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