The strong amplification of global warming amplifies the rate of thawing of permafrost in the Arctic. This process could produce a positive feedback to the global warming by emitting carbon into the atmosphere in the form of methane and carbon dioxide, while the existing and future constructions on the permafrost area may be endangered by movements of the soil due to its thawing. Most studies find that additional emissions of methane from the permafrost in the 21st century probably will not strongly impact global warming. By 2100 emissions of carbon dioxide from current carbon deposits in the permafrost may significantly increase emissions of carbon dioxide, but this effect will be partly compensated by carbon deposition and storage in the newly developed vegetation over the warmer permafrost. Estimates of future emissions presented in the report are based on models of different complexity, but as even more complex models might not be able to capture the true extend of permafrost thawing and vegetation development, the estimate of net atmospheric emissions in the 21st century is highly uncertain.

DOBRICIC Srdan;  POZZOLI Luca; 

2019-11-14

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC109379

978-92-76-10182-6 (online),    978-92-76-10201-4 (print),   

1831-9424 (online),    1018-5593 (print),   

EUR 29940 EN,    OP KJ-NA-29940-EN-N (online),    OP KJ-NA-29940-EN-C (print),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC109379,   

10.2760/007066 (online),    10.2760/83312 (print),