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dc.contributor.authorMARA THIERRYen_GB
dc.contributor.authorKOPUSTINSKAS VYTISen_GB
dc.contributor.authorROSATI ROSSANAen_GB
dc.contributor.authorSTAKELYTE GINTAREen_GB
dc.contributor.authorPRAKS PAVELen_GB
dc.identifier.otherEUR 28953 ENen_GB
dc.identifier.otherOP KJ-NA-28953-EN-Nen_GB
dc.description.abstractSecurity of gas supply is a crucial stake for the European countries. The ProGasNet simulator has been developed by the European Commission to study the vulnerability of the gas network to different threats. With the simulator the European gas network (or a portion of the network) can be modelled. But several uncertainties are present in the models. Therefore, it is important to analyse the impact of these uncertainties on the model-based inferences. This report presents an uncertainty and sensitivity exercise of the security of gas supply model of an anonymised EU gas transmission network of several members. The uncertainty analysis shows that, for some scenarios of gas supply disruption, due to the uncertainties in the input parameters it cannot be clearly concluded whether the network is reliable (i.e. can supply the demand of the countries) or not. The sensitivity analysis points out the uncertain inputs mostly responsible for this lack of precision. It is found that priority should be given to the better assessment of the peak demand of the studied countries if one wants to get reliable results. Additionally, the study also highlights areas where the studied infrastructure can be improved.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.I.1-Modelling, Indicators and Impact Evaluationen_GB
dc.publisherPublications Office of the European Unionen_GB
dc.titleSecurity of Gas Supply with the ProGasNet Simulator: an Uncertainty & Sensitivity Analysis Exerciseen_GB
dc.typeEUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reportsen_GB
JRC Directorate:Joint Research Centre Corporate Activities

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