Title: Baseline Assumptions in EC Impact Assessments: Significance, Analysis and Recommendations
Authors: PENEDO DE SOUSA MARQUES ALEXANDRAHRADEC JIRIROSENBAUM ECKEHARD
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2017
JRC N°: JRC109839
ISBN: 978-92-79-77153-8
ISSN: 1831-9424
Other Identifiers: EUR 28951 EN
OP KJ-NA-28951-EN-N
URI: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC109839
DOI: 10.2760/982695
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: Impact assessments (IA) are an important tool for better regulation and thus one of the cornerstones of policy making in the European Union. IAs require a benchmark against which the policy options can be compared. This benchmark is usually referred to as baseline or baseline scenario. To the extent possible, baselines in different IAs should be consistent, i.e. the assumptions underlying the baselines should avoid logical and factual contradictions. This report examines IAs from 2011 onwards with a view to check whether baseline assumptions are consistent. The baseline assumptions have been identified using text mining techniques. The focus is on model-based IAs considering that quantitative assumptions are expected to be found predominantly in IAs that make use of models. The findings suggest that, within policy areas, there is a greater degree of consistency than across policy areas. Moreover, baselines assumptions vary more in the course of time than within one year. At the same time, there is still room for improvement as regards the documentation of baseline assumption.
JRC Directorate:Joint Research Centre Corporate Activities

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