Baseline Assumptions in EC Impact Assessments: Significance, Analysis and Recommendations
Impact assessments (IA) are an important tool for better regulation and thus one of the cornerstones of policy making in the European Union. IAs require a benchmark against which the policy options can be compared. This benchmark is usually referred to as baseline or baseline scenario. To the extent possible, baselines in different IAs should be consistent, i.e. the assumptions underlying the baselines should avoid logical and factual contradictions.
This report examines IAs from 2011 onwards with a view to check whether baseline assumptions are consistent. The baseline assumptions have been identified using text mining techniques. The focus is on model-based IAs considering that quantitative assumptions are expected to be found predominantly in IAs that make use of models.
The findings suggest that, within policy areas, there is a greater degree of consistency than across policy areas. Moreover, baselines assumptions vary more in the course of time than within one year. At the same time, there is still room for improvement as regards the documentation of baseline assumption.
PENEDO DE SOUSA MARQUES Alexandra;
HRADEC Jiri;
ROSENBAUM Eckehard;
2018-01-12
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC109839
978-92-79-77153-8,
1831-9424,
EUR 28951 EN,
OP KJ-NA-28951-EN-N,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC109839,
10.2760/982695,
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