Title: PESETA III - Task 8: Coastal Impacts - JRC PESETA III project
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2018
JRC N°: JRC110311
ISBN: 978-92-79-96910-2 (online)
ISSN: 1831-9424 (online)
Other Identifiers: EUR 29421 EN
OP KJ-NA-29421-EN-N (online)
URI: http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC110311
DOI: 10.2760/745440
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: The study focuses on direct impacts of coastal flooding. Under present climate conditions, the estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for Europe is 1.25 billion €, while the Expected Annual number of People Affected by coastal flooding (EAPA) equals 102,000 people. Under the static economic analysis, EAD is projected to rise to nearly 4 billion € by 2030 and to more than 6 billion € by mid-century (respectively 6.6 and 8.1 billion € for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). For this scenario, EAPA will rise to nearly 300,000 people by 2030 and exceed 450,000 people (respectively 467,000 and 558,800 people for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). In the second halve of the century the figures diverge more strongly between the two RCPs. By 2080, due to the effects of climate change only, EAD (EAPA) could rise to 17 billion € (975,000 people) under RCP4.5 and to 28 billion € (1.35 million people) under RCP8.5. Accelerating Sea Level Rise towards the end of the century results in an exponential increase in coastal flood impacts towards the end of the century, with by the year 2100 EAD (EAPA) amounting to 27 billion € (1.3 million people) and 60 billion € (2.1 million people) under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Impacts at 2˚C warming are similar to those around 2050, but are larger under the RCP4.5 scenario compared to RCP8.5. This is related to inertia effects of global warming on SLR. Because the rate of warming is higher under RCP8.5, with 2˚C warming occurring around 2043, the effect of SLR are less pronounced compared to RCP4.5, for which 2˚C warming is projected around 2057. Nevertheless, at any specific point in time, impacts under RCP8.5 are always larger that under RCP4.5.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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