Title: Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard
Authors: VOUSDOUKAS MICHAILMENTASCHI LORENZOVOUKOUVALAS EVANGELOSVERLAAN MARTINJEVREJEVA SVETLANAJACKSON LUKEFEYEN LUC
Citation: NATURE COMMUNICATIONS vol. 9 no. 1 p. 2360
Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Publication Year: 2018
JRC N°: JRC110647
ISSN: 2041-1723
URI: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-018-04692-w
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC110647
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-018-04692-w
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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