Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
|Title:||Global probabilistic projections of extreme sea levels show intensification of coastal flood hazard|
|Authors:||VOUSDOUKAS MICHAIL; MENTASCHI LORENZO; VOUKOUVALAS EVANGELOS; VERLAAN MARTIN; JEVREJEVA SVETLANA; JACKSON LUKE; FEYEN LUC|
|Citation:||NATURE COMMUNICATIONS vol. 9 no. 1 p. 2360|
|Publisher:||NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||Global warming is expected to drive increasing extreme sea levels (ESLs) and flood risk along the world’s coastlines. In this work we present probabilistic projections of ESLs for the present century taking into consideration changes in mean sea level, tides, wind-waves, and storm surges. Between the year 2000 and 2100 we project a very likely increase of the global average 100-year ESL of 34–76 cm under a moderate-emission-mitigation-policy scenario and of 58–172 cm under a business as usual scenario. Rising ESLs are mostly driven by thermal expansion, followed by contributions from ice mass-loss from glaciers, and icesheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Under these scenarios ESL rise would render a large part of the tropics exposed annually to the present-day 100-year event from 2050. By the end of this century this applies to most coastlines around the world, implying unprecedented flood risk levels unless timely adaptation measures are taken|
|JRC Directorate:||Space, Security and Migration|
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.