The role of methane in future climate strategies: Mitigation potentials and climate impacts

This study examines model specific assumptions and projections of methane (CH4) emissions in deep mitigation scenarios generated by Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs). For this, scenarios of nine models are compared in terms of sectoral and regional CH4 emission reduction strategies, as well as resulting climate impacts. The models’ projected reduction potentials are compared to sector and technology specific reduction potentials found in literature. Significant cost-effective and non-climate policy related reductions are projected in the reference case (6%-19% compared to a “frozen emission factor” scenario in 2050). Still, compared to 2010, CH4 emissions are expected to rise steadily by 9%-72% until 2100. Ambitious CO2 reduction measures could bring a strong positive co-benefit of reducing also CH4 emissions due to a reduction of fossil fuels (9%-42% compared to the reference case in 2050). However, direct CH4 mitigation is crucial and more effective in bringing down CH4 (28%-66% compared to the reference case in 2050). Given the limited reduction potential, agriculture CH4 emissions are projected to constitute an increasingly larger share of total anthropogenic CH4 emissions in mitigation scenarios. Enteric fermentation in ruminants is in that respect by far the largest mitigation bottleneck by the end of the century with a projected 35% to 72% of total CH4 emissions in a strong (2oC) climate policy case.

HARMSEN J.H. Mathijs;  VAN VUUREN Detlef;  BODIRSKY Benjamin L.;  CHATEAU Jean;  DURAND-LASSERVE Olivier;  DROUET Laurent;  FRICKO Oliver;  FUJIMORI Shinichiro;  GERNAAT David;  HANAOKA Tatsuya;  HILAIRE Jerome;  KERAMIDAS Kimon;  LUDERER Gunnar;  MOURA Maria C.;  SANO Fuminori;  SMITH Steven J;  WADA Kenichi; 

2020-12-21

SPRINGER

JRC110672

0165-0009 (online),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC110672,   

10.1007/s10584-019-02437-2 (online),