Title: Increased human and economic losses from river flooding with anthropogenic warming
Authors: DOTTORI FRANCESCOSZEWCZYK WOJCIECHCISCAR MARTINEZ JUAN CARLOSZHAO FANGALFIERI LORENZOHIRABAYASHI YUKIKOBIANCHI ALESSANDRAMONGELLI IGNAZIOFRIELER KATJABETTS RICHARDFEYEN LUC
Citation: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE vol. 8 p. 781-786
Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Publication Year: 2018
JRC N°: JRC111224
ISSN: 1758-678X
URI: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0257-z
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC111224
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-018-0257-z
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: River floods are among some of the costliest natural disasters, but their socioeconomic impacts under contrasting warming levels remains little explored. Here, using a multi-model framework, we estimate human losses, direct economic damage, and subsequent indirect impacts (welfare losses) under a range of temperature (1.5°C, 2°C, and 3°C) and socioeconomic scenarios, assuming current vulnerability levels and in absence of future adaptation. With temperature increases of 1.5 °C, depending on the socioeconomic scenario, it is found that human losses from flooding could rise by 70 to 83%, direct flood damage by 160 to 240%, with a relative welfare reduction between 0.23 to 0.29%. In a 2°C world, by contrast, the death toll is 50% higher, direct economic damage doubles, and welfare losses grow to 0.4%. Impacts are notably higher under 3C warming, but at the same time, variability between ensemble members also increases, leading to greater uncertainty regarding flood impacts at higher warming levels. Flood impacts are further shown to have uneven regional distribution, with greatest losses observed over the Asian continent at all analysed warming levels. It is clear that increased adaptation and mitigation efforts – perhaps through infrastructural investment – are needed to offset increasing risk of river floods in the future.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.