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|Title:||Comparing post-crisis dynamics across Euro Area countries with the Global Multi-country model|
|Authors:||ALBONICO ALICE; CALÈS LUDOVIC; CARDANI ROBERTA; CROITOROV OLGA; FERRONI FILIPPO; GIOVANNINI MASSIMO; HOHBERGER STEFAN; PATARACCHIA BEATRICE; PERICOLI FILIPPO; RACIBORSKI RAFAL; RATTO MARCO; ROEGER WERNER; VOGEL LUKAS|
|Citation:||ECONOMIC MODELLING vol. 81 p. 242-273|
|Publisher:||ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||Following the global financial crisis, the Euro Area (EA) has experienced a persistent slump and notable tradebalance adjustments, but with pronounced differences across EA Member States. We estimate a multi-countrystructural macroeconomic model to assess and compare the main drivers of GDP growth and trade balanceadjustment across Germany, France, Italy, and Spain. We find that the pronounced post-crisis slump in Italyand Spain was mainly driven by positive saving shocks (‘deleveraging’) and by an increase in investment andintra-euro risk premia. Fiscal austerity in Spain and the productivity slowdown in Italy have been additionalsizable contributors to the economic downturn. The results further suggest that euro depreciation, heightenedintra-euro risk premia and subdued investment had a sizable impact on the trade balance reversals in Italy andSpain, which has been offset in France by a strong increase in imports and lower exports.|
|JRC Directorate:||Growth and Innovation|
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