Reconciling global-model estimates and country reporting of anthropogenic forest CO2 sinks

Achieving the long-term temperature goal of the Paris Agreement requires a key contribution from forest mitigation. The countries’ collective progress towards this goal will be assessed the Global Stocktake. Currently, a ≈3 GtCO2/y discrepancy in global anthropogenic land net emission estimates of exists between global models (reflected in IPCC Assessment Reports) and aggregated national greenhouse gas (GHG) inventories (under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change). We show that this discrepancy is largely explained by conceptual differences in estimating the “anthropogenic” forest sinks, in terms of representation of environmental change impacts and the areas considered “managed”. For the Global Stocktake to be credible, these differences need to be reconciled. We implement a new method of disaggregation of global model results that allows greater comparability with GHG inventories. Our analysis deepens the understanding of differences between models and inventories, allows more transparent analysis of forest-based mitigation, and facilitates a meaningful Global Stocktake.

GRASSI Giacomo;  HOUSE Joanna I.;  KURZ Werner;  CESCATTI Alessandro;  HOUGHTON R. A.;  PETERS Glen P.;  SANZ SANCHEZ Maria;  ABAD VIÑAS Raúl;  ALKAMA Romain;  ARNETH Almut;  BONDEAU Alberte;  DENTENER Franciscus;  FADER Marianela;  FEDERICI Sandro;  FRIEDLINGSTEIN P;  JAIN A.K.;  KATO Etsushi;  KOVEN C.;  LEE Donna;  NABEL Julia E.M.S;  NASSIKAS Alexander A;  PERUGINI Lucia;  ROSSI Simone;  SITCH Stephen;  VIOVY Nicolas;  WILTSHIRE Andy;  ZAEHLE Sonke; 

2018-11-23

NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP

JRC112385

1758-678X (online),   

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-018-0283-x#Sec15,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC112385,   

10.1038/s41558-018-0283-x (online),