Diagnosis & Prognosis Tool for Severe Accidents in European Nuclear Power Plants

The European Commission Joint Research Centre is embarked in a project aimed at diagnosing and predicting the progression and consequences of a severe accident in Nuclear Power Plants (NPPs) located in European countries. This tool is based on performing plant-specific sequence simulations for the most risk-significant severe accidents integrating probabilistic and deterministic safety analysis methods. By building up a plant-specific surrogate model of the plant based on up-to-date available information specific for each of the European NPPs as collected in a EC-JRC database, the most relevant events are predicted, including a thorough prognosis of released source term characterization in magnitude and timing and at a radionuclide level, and further meteorological dispersion by coupling the results with a suitable radiological assessment code. In order to validate the feasibility and accuracy of such innovative approach, the results of a pilot surrogate model of the plant have been compared with those generated by an as-built, complete model of one real plant and the deviation has been statistically treated and afterwards incorporated into the following surrogate models corresponding to one specific NPP design. It is worth noting that deviations are found within a very reasonable band, narrow enough to be confident on the accuracy of the method. Within the following steps to be carried out before applying the methodology to all European NPPs (except for the AGR and CANDU design), a blind benchmarking exercise is to be performed in the near future. This presentation gives an overview of the methodology together with the very first comparison of the results between the surrogate model and an as-built, fully comprehensive model for a 1000 MWe, Westinghouse Large Dry Containment, 3-Loop Pressurized Water Reactor type of design.

DE LA ROSA BLUL Juan Carlos;  STRUCIC Miodrag;  PLA FREIXA Patricia;  AMMIRABILE Luca; 

2018-12-11

INFORUM VERLAGS-VERWALTUNGSGESELLSCHAFT MBH

JRC112475

1431-5254,   

https://www.kernenergie.de/kernenergie-en/fachzeitschrift-atw/hefte-themen/2018/10_oct.php,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC112475,