Spatial Patterns of Crop Yield Change by Emitted Pollutant

Field measurements and modeling have examined how temperature, precipitation, and exposure to carbon dioxide (CO2) and ozone affect major staple crops in various parts of the world. Most prior studies, however, have incorporated only a subset of these influences. Here we examine how emissions of each of the major pollutants driving changes in these four factors affect present-day yields of wheat, maize (corn) and rice worldwide. Our modeling indicates that for the global mean, climate and composition changes have decreased wheat and maize yields substantially whereas rice yields have increased. Well-mixed greenhouse gases (WMGHGs) drive most of the impacts, though aerosol cooling can be important, particularly for more polluted area such as India and China. Maize yield losses are most strongly attributable to methane emissions. In tropical areas, wheat yield losses are primarily driven by CO2, whereas in temperate zones other WMGHGs dominate. Rice yields increase in tropical countries due to a larger impact from CO2 fertilization plus aerosol cooling than losses due to non-CO2 gases, whereas there are net losses in temperate zones driven largely by methane and other non-CO2 gases. Though further work is needed, particularly on the effects of aerosol composition changes and nutritional impacts, these results suggest that crop yields over coming decades will be strongly influenced by changes in non-CO2 gases and aerosols and that these effects should be taking into account when examining linkages between climate change mitigation and sustainable development.

SHINDELL Drew;  FALUVEGI Greg;  KASIBHATLA Prasad S.;  VAN DINGENEN Rita; 

2019-06-11

WILEY-BLACKWELL

JRC113213

2328-4277 (online),   

https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1029/2018EF001030,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113213,   

10.1029/2018EF001030 (online),