CAP and No-CAP scenario options

The land use changes of the LUISA Territorial Reference Scenario (TRS) 2017 with the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) option were evaluated for changes in soil organic C-stocks and subsequent emissions and removals of CO2. The procedure applied follows the 2006 IPCC Guidelines for a Tier 1 method and is implemented as a spatial application in a GIS to conform to Approach 3. The TRS scenario data from LUISA was processed under two suppositions, one treating the scenario data as a continuation of the previously processed statistical data (historic period) and a second that directly processed the scenario data. Another processing option evaluated was the treatment of a mixed class in the scenario data. Under all processing options the TRS scenario data continues the trend in soil organic C-stocks from the historic period. Soil organic C-stocks in mineral soils continue to increase, albeit with a decrease in the annual rate of accumulation after 2020. Under the TRS-CAP scenario soil organic carbon stocks are approx. 0.6% higher than in 2005, which corresponds to a removal of 628 Mt CO2 until 2030. Emissions from managed organic soils remain notably higher than removals on mineral soils, but with higher uncertainty of estimates. An evaluation of an option without CAP pointed to a 0.1% higher accumulation of soil organic carbon in most regions than under the CAP in 2030. However, it should be noted that this evaluation did not take any supporting measures of the CAP for of management practices and input levels into account that are designed to increase soil organic carbon stocks.

HIEDERER Roland;  PERPIÑA CASTILLO Carolina; 

2018-11-19

Publications Office of the European Union

JRC113691

978-92-79-97248-5 (online),   

1831-9424 (online),   

EUR 29436 EN,    OP KJ-NA-29436-EN-N (online),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113691,   

10.2760/605065 (online),