Studies show that climate variability drives interannual changes in meteorological variables in Europe, which directly or indirectly impacts crop production. However, there is no climate-based decision model that uses indices of atmospheric oscillation to predict agricultural production risks in Europe on multiple time-scales during the cropping season. We used Fast-and-Frugal trees to predict sugar beet production, applying five large-scale indices of atmospheric oscillation: El Niño Southern Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Scandinavian Pattern, East Atlantic Pattern, and East Atlantic/West Russian pattern. We found that Fast-and-Frugal trees predicted high/low sugar beet production events in 77% of the investigated regions, corresponding to 81% of total European sugar beet production. For nearly half of these regions, high/low production could be predicted six or five months before the start of the sugar beet harvesting season, which represents approximately 44% of the mean annual sugar beet produced in all investigated areas. Providing early warning of crop production shortages/excess allows decision makers to prepare in advance. Therefore, the use of the indices of climate variability to forecast crop production is a promising tool to strengthen European agricultural climate resilience.

GUIMARES NOBRE Gabriela;  HUNINK Johannes;  BARUTH Bettina;  AERTS J.C.J.H.;  WARD P.J.; 

2019-03-27

NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP

JRC113812

2045-2322 (online),   

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-018-38091-4,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC113812,   

10.1038/s41598-018-38091-4 (online),