Title: EU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenarios
Authors: KRAUSE JETTETHIEL CHRISTIANTSOKOLIS DIMITRIOSSAMARAS ZISSISROTA CHRISTIANWARD ANDYPRENNINGER PETERCOOSEMANS THIERRYNEUGEBAUER STEPHANVERHOEVE WIM
Citation: ENERGY POLICY vol. 138 p. 111224
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCI LTD
Publication Year: 2020
JRC N°: JRC115231
ISSN: 0301-4215 (online)
URI: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC115231
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111224
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: To inform long-term policies on transport decarbonisation, the present paper analyses European road transport CO2 emission reduction options by 2050. The investigation focusses on measures improving tank to wheel vehicle efficiency, but takes into account upstream emissions of electric vehicles. Measures for vehicle efficiency improvement, transport smoothing, and transport reduction, as well as possible 2050 road vehicle fleet compositions have been quantified through expert group discussion and combined with fleet impact modelling to calculate scenario results. Outcomes show that tank to wheel road transport CO2 emission reductions up to 90% versus 1990 could be reached by 2050 through strong fleet electrification and if all measures achieve their best potential. Under ambitious fleet electrification scenarios, CO2 reduction of more than 60% is reached without measures, but causes substantial additional demand for low-carbon electricity, the availability of which is not covered in this paper. It is likely that policies will be a prerequisite for fleet electrification and efficiency increases of the order of magnitude assumed. Moreover, upstream CO2 emissions of electricity for battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could add up to 40% of tank to wheel emissions, suggesting that complementary policies are needed to avoid shifting transport emissions to other sectors.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.


Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.