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dc.contributor.authorKRAUSE JETTEen_GB
dc.contributor.authorTHIEL CHRISTIANen_GB
dc.contributor.authorTSOKOLIS DIMITRIOSen_GB
dc.contributor.authorSAMARAS ZISSISen_GB
dc.contributor.authorROTA CHRISTIANen_GB
dc.contributor.authorWARD ANDYen_GB
dc.contributor.authorPRENNINGER PETERen_GB
dc.contributor.authorCOOSEMANS THIERRYen_GB
dc.contributor.authorNEUGEBAUER STEPHANen_GB
dc.contributor.authorVERHOEVE WIMen_GB
dc.identifier.citationENERGY POLICY vol. 138 p. 111224en_GB
dc.identifier.issn0301-4215 (online)en_GB
dc.description.abstractTo inform long-term policies on transport decarbonisation, the present paper analyses European road transport CO2 emission reduction options by 2050. The investigation focusses on measures improving tank to wheel vehicle efficiency, but takes into account upstream emissions of electric vehicles. Measures for vehicle efficiency improvement, transport smoothing, and transport reduction, as well as possible 2050 road vehicle fleet compositions have been quantified through expert group discussion and combined with fleet impact modelling to calculate scenario results. Outcomes show that tank to wheel road transport CO2 emission reductions up to 90% versus 1990 could be reached by 2050 through strong fleet electrification and if all measures achieve their best potential. Under ambitious fleet electrification scenarios, CO2 reduction of more than 60% is reached without measures, but causes substantial additional demand for low-carbon electricity, the availability of which is not covered in this paper. It is likely that policies will be a prerequisite for fleet electrification and efficiency increases of the order of magnitude assumed. Moreover, upstream CO2 emissions of electricity for battery and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles could add up to 40% of tank to wheel emissions, suggesting that complementary policies are needed to avoid shifting transport emissions to other sectors.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.C.4-Sustainable Transporten_GB
dc.publisherELSEVIER SCI LTDen_GB
dc.titleEU road vehicle energy consumption and CO2 emissions by 2050 – Expert-based scenariosen_GB
dc.typeArticles in periodicals and booksen_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.1016/j.enpol.2019.111224 (online)en_GB
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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