Title: Analysis and testing of electric car incentive scenarios in the Netherlands and Norway
Authors: DEUTEN SEBASTIAANGOMEZ VILCHEZ JONATANTHIEL CHRISTIAN
Citation: TECHNOLOGICAL FORECASTING AND SOCIAL CHANGE vol. 151 p. 119847
Publisher: ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
Publication Year: 2020
JRC N°: JRC115397
ISSN: 0040-1625 (online)
URI: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC115397
DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2019.119847
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Past and future electric vehicle sales shares in the Netherlands and Norway are analysed with the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent Model. This system dynamics model was expanded to include the leading Norwegian car market and updated with recent data on policy incentives. Three model validation tests are discussed: the reproduction of past behaviour from 2010 till 2017, policy sensitivity, and feedback loop knockout analysis. Findings point in the direction that regulation on emission targets for manufacturers are necessary for a transition away from new sales of fossil fuel-based vehicles. Only strong incentives resulted in large sales shares of zero emission vehicles in the Netherlands and Norway.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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