Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
|Title:||Range-dependent thresholds for global flood early warning|
|Authors:||ALFIERI LORENZO; ZSOTER ERVIN; HARRIGAN SHAUN; HIRPA FEYERA; LAVAYSSE CHRISTOPHE; PRUDHOMME CHRISTEL; SALAMON PETER|
|Citation:||JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY X vol. 4 p. 100034|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||Early warning systems (EWS) for river flooding are strategic tools for effective disaster risk management in many world regions. When driven by ensemble Numerical Weather Predictions (NWP), flood EWS provide nowadays skillful streamflow forecasts beyond the monthly time scale in large river basins. Yet, effective flood detection is challenged by accurate estimation of warning thresholds that identify specific hazard levels along the entire river network and forecast horizon. This research describes a novel approach to estimate warning thresholds which retain statistical consistency with the operational forecasts at all lead times. The procedure is developed in the context of the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS). A 21-year forecast-consistent dataset is used to derive thresholds with global coverage and forecast range up to six weeks. These are compared with thresholds derived from ERA5, a state of the art atmospheric reanalysis used to run the baseline simulation for the years 1986-2017 and to give a best guess of the present hydrological states. Findings show that the use of constant thresholds for 30-day flood forecasting, as in the current operational GloFAS setup, is consistent throughout the entire forecast range in only 30% to 40% of the river network, depending on the flood return period. Findings show that range-dependent thresholds, of weekly duration, are a more suitable alternative to time-invariant thresholds, as they improve the model consistency as well as the skills in flood monitoring and early warning, particularly over longer forecasting range.|
|JRC Directorate:||Space, Security and Migration|
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.