Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind wave climate projections

Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.

MORIM Joao;  HEMER Mark;  WANG Xiaoliang;  CARTWRIGHT Nick;  TRENHAM Claire;  SEMEDO Alvaro;  YOUNG Ian;  BRICHENO Lucy;  CAMUS Paula;  CASAS-PRAT Mercè;  ERIKSON Li;  MENTASCHI Lorenzo;  MORI Nobuhito;  SHIMURA Tomoya;  TIMMERMAN Ben;  AARNES Ole;  BREIVIK Oyvind;  BEHRENS Arno;  DOBRYNIN Mikhail;  MENENDEZ Melisa;  STANEVA Joanna V.;  WEHNER Michael;  WOLF Judith;  KAMRANZAD Bahareh;  WEBB Adrean;  STOPA Justin;  ANDUTTA Fernando; 

2019-09-04

NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP

JRC115807

1758-678X (online),   

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0542-5#Sec18,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC115807,   

10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5 (online),