Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item:
|Title:||Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind wave climate projections|
|Authors:||MORIM JOAO; HEMER MARK; WANG XIAOLIANG; CARTWRIGHT NICK; TRENHAM CLAIRE; SEMEDO ALVARO; YOUNG IAN; BRICHENO LUCY; CAMUS PAULA; CASAS-PRAT MERCÈ; ERIKSON LI; MENTASCHI LORENZO; MORI NOBUHITO; SHIMURA TOMOYA; TIMMERMAN BEN; AARNES OLE; BREIVIK OYVIND; BEHRENS ARNO; DOBRYNIN MIKHAIL; MENENDEZ MELISA; STANEVA JOANNA V.; WEHNER MICHAEL; WOLF JUDITH; KAMRANZAD BAHAREH; WEBB ADREAN; STOPA JUSTIN; ANDUTTA FERNANDO|
|Citation:||NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE vol. 9 p. 711-718|
|Publisher:||NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP|
|Type:||Articles in periodicals and books|
|Abstract:||Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.|
|JRC Directorate:||Space, Security and Migration|
Files in This Item:
There are no files associated with this item.
Items in repository are protected by copyright, with all rights reserved, unless otherwise indicated.