Title: Robustness and uncertainties in global multivariate wind wave climate projections
Authors: MORIM JOAOHEMER MARKWANG XIAOLIANGCARTWRIGHT NICKTRENHAM CLAIRESEMEDO ALVAROYOUNG IANBRICHENO LUCYCAMUS PAULACASAS-PRAT MERCÈERIKSON LIMENTASCHI LORENZOMORI NOBUHITOSHIMURA TOMOYATIMMERMAN BENAARNES OLEBREIVIK OYVINDBEHRENS ARNODOBRYNIN MIKHAILMENENDEZ MELISASTANEVA JOANNA V.WEHNER MICHAELWOLF JUDITHKAMRANZAD BAHAREHWEBB ADREANSTOPA JUSTINANDUTTA FERNANDO
Citation: NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE vol. 9 p. 711-718
Publisher: NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP
Publication Year: 2019
JRC N°: JRC115807
ISSN: 1758-678X (online)
URI: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-019-0542-5#Sec18
http://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC115807
DOI: 10.1038/s41558-019-0542-5
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: Understanding climate-driven impacts on the multivariate global wind-wave climate is paramount to effective offshore/coastal climate adaptation planning. However, the use of single-method ensembles and variations arising from different methodologies has resulted in unquantified uncertainty amongst existing global wave climate projections. Here, assessing the first coherent, community-driven, multi-method ensemble of global wave climate projections, we demonstrate widespread ocean regions with robust changes in annual mean significant wave height and mean wave period of 5–15% and shifts in mean wave direction of 5–15°, under a high-emission scenario. Approximately 50% of the world’s coastline is at risk from wave climate change, with ~40% revealing robust changes in at least two variables. Furthermore, we find that uncertainty in current projections is dominated by climate model-driven uncertainty, and that single-method modelling studies are unable to capture up to ~50% of the total associated uncertainty.
JRC Directorate:Space, Security and Migration

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