Title: The POTEnCIA Central scenario: an EU energy outlook to 2050
Authors: MANTZOS LEONIDASWIESENTHAL TOBIASNEUWAHL FREDERIKRÓZSAI MÁTÉ
Publisher: Publications Office of the European Union
Publication Year: 2019
JRC N°: JRC118353
ISBN: 978-92-76-12010-0 (online),978-92-76-12009-4 (print)
ISSN: 1831-9424 (online),1018-5593 (print)
Other Identifiers: EUR 29881 EN
OP KJ-NA-29881-EN-N (online),KJ-NA-29881-EN-C (print)
URI: https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/potencia
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC118353
DOI: 10.2760/32835
10.2760/78212
Type: EUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reports
Abstract: This report describes the evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in this 'Central' scenario set-up, but will miss mid-century targets. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. The EU target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels in 2030 will not be met under the assumptions of the scenario, confirming the need for additional policies and measures. The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts within the POTEnCIA modelling framework.
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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