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dc.contributor.authorMANTZOS LEONIDASen_GB
dc.contributor.authorWIESENTHAL TOBIASen_GB
dc.contributor.authorNEUWAHL FREDERIKen_GB
dc.contributor.authorRÓZSAI MÁTÉen_GB
dc.identifier.isbn978-92-76-12010-0 (online),978-92-76-12009-4 (print)en_GB
dc.identifier.issn1831-9424 (online),1018-5593 (print)en_GB
dc.identifier.otherEUR 29881 ENen_GB
dc.identifier.otherOP KJ-NA-29881-EN-N (online),KJ-NA-29881-EN-C (print)en_GB
dc.description.abstractThis report describes the evolution of the EU energy system until the year 2050 under the assumption that no further policies and measures are introduced beyond the end of 2017. The results show that both the energy and the carbon intensity of the European economy remain on a declining path in this 'Central' scenario set-up, but will miss mid-century targets. This evolution is driven by the continued impact of policies that are already in place in combination with technology progress, as well as by structural changes and the development of the prices of fossil fuels and of the CO2 allowances under the EU Emissions Trading System. The EU target to reduce GHG emissions by at least 40% from 1990 levels in 2030 will not be met under the assumptions of the scenario, confirming the need for additional policies and measures. The Central scenario was developed with the JRC´s energy model POTEnCIA and serves as reference point to which policy scenarios can be compared. It is the result of a transparent and iterative interactive exercise between the JRC, other Commission services and Member States' national experts within the POTEnCIA modelling framework.en_GB
dc.description.sponsorshipJRC.C.6-Economics of Climate Change, Energy and Transporten_GB
dc.publisherPublications Office of the European Unionen_GB
dc.titleThe POTEnCIA Central scenario: an EU energy outlook to 2050en_GB
dc.typeEUR - Scientific and Technical Research Reportsen_GB
dc.identifier.doi10.2760/32835 (online),10.2760/78212 (print)en_GB
JRC Directorate:Energy, Transport and Climate

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