Title: Assessment of West Nile virus transmission risk from a weather-dependent epidemiological model and a global sensitivity analysis framework
Citation: ACTA TROPICA vol. 193 p. 129-141
Publication Year: 2019
JRC N°: JRC119556
ISSN: 0001-706X (online)
URI: https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC119556
DOI: 10.1016/j.actatropica.2019.03.003
Type: Articles in periodicals and books
Abstract: West Nile virus (WNV )transmission risk is strongly related to weather conditions due to the sensitivity of the mosquitoes to climatic factors. We assess the WNV transmission risk of humans to seasonal weather conditions and the relative effects of parameters affecting the transmission dynamics. The assessment involves a known epidemiological model we extend to account for temperature and precipitation and a global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis framework. We focus on three relevant quantities, the basic reproduction number (R0), the minimum infection rate (MIR), and the number of infected individuals. The highest-priority weather-related WNV transmission risks can be attributed to the birth and death rate of mosquitoes, the biting rate of mosquitoes to birds, and the probability of transmission from birds to mosquitoes. Global sensitivity analysis indicates that these parameters make up a big part of the explained variance in R0 and MIR. The analysis allows for a dynamic assessment over time capturing the period parameters are more relevant than others. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of WNV transmission risk to humans enable insights into the relative importance of individual parameters of the transmission cycle of the virus facilitating the understanding of the dynamics and the implementation of tailored control strategies.
JRC Directorate:Health, Consumers and Reference Materials

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