Report on the biogeochemical model setup for the Baltic Sea and its applications
Various human-induced environmental pressures such as eutrophication affect the Baltic Sea. A coupled hydrodynamic-biogeochemical model was used to assess the response of the Baltic Sea’s ecosystem to climate change and nutrient reduction. This model was run with different settings and observation data was used for data analysis and model validation. The validation confirmed that the results for the model are reliable and allow its usage for simulations involving hindcast and forecast scenarios. Hydrodynamic features such as salinity and temperature were well reproduced. Among the modelled eutrophication indicators, chlorophyll-a, oxygen, nitrate and phosphorus followed the seasonal cycle. The presence of ice affected the central variables of the biogeochemical model substantially. Changing ice conditions are one of the key factors directly affecting the timing and composition of spring bloom within the Baltic Sea, with cascading consequences for nutrient transfer and ecological dynamics. Moreover, the modelling results indicated that the assumed nutrient reductions based on the implementation of various measures in the catchment area could lead to a slight improvement in the health of the Baltic Sea as there was an approximate 2% increase in the improvement of the D5C1 indicators. But longer time series are required to observe a substantial change in the Baltic Sea’s environmental conditions and that stronger nutrient input reduction measures are necessary to achieve an improved environmental status.
PARN Ove;
FRIEDLAND Rene;
GARCIA GORRIZ Elisa;
STIPS Adolf;
2020-06-15
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC120378
978-92-76-19448-4 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 30252 EN,
OP KJ-NA-30252-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC120378,
10.2760/672255 (online),
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