Simulating the battery price and the car-mix in key electro-mobility markets via model coupling

This paper describes the modelling process of soft-linking two system dynamics models of the automotive ecosystem: the Powertrain Technology Transition Market Agent model and the Transport, Energy, Economics, Environment model. The objective of this work is to explore future battery electric and plug-in hybrid electric powertrain deployment in key electro-mobility markets: China, European Union, India, Japan, Norway and the United States. Two main scenarios are constructed for this purpose: ‘Base’ and ‘Alternative’. The latter, which consists in setting stricter CO2 emission standards for new cars and introducing electric car purchase incentives, leads to a combined stock of almost 130 million electric cars in 2030. Yet, conventional car technology continues to dominate the car-mix in the investigated markets under this scenario. By soft-linking the two models and adding information from the electric bus market, a more realistic representation of the historical battery price evolution is obtained. Due to the uncertain evolution of the battery price, sensitivity analysis is performed and simulations with faster growth in electric car deployment identified. We conclude that the battery price remains a crucial explanatory variable for annual electric car sales in simulation exercises.

GOMEZ VILCHEZ Jonatan;  THIEL Christian; 

2020-12-04

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD

JRC121037

1747-7778 (online),   

https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC121037,   

10.1080/17477778.2020.1781556 (online),