Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis for policy decision making
An introductory guide
The European Commission is committed to transparent and evidence based policy making throughout the policy cycle. Simulation models are increasingly used in impact assessments to provide support to policy makers across a wide range of policy areas. To ensure model quality in support to policy, understanding and communicating uncertainty in model outputs is essential. In modelling, accounting for uncertainties and identifying its most important sources is an inherent issue. Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be systematically performed in modelling activities in support to policy making. This report aims at highlighting the added value that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis can bring to modelling activities to inform policy makers, and presents a specific software that has been developed within the Commission to help modellers and analysts.
AZZINI Ivano;
LISTORTI Giulia;
MARA Thierry;
ROSATI Rossana;
2020-12-01
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC122132
978-92-76-24752-4 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 30432 EN,
OP KJ-NA-30432-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC122132,
10.2760/922129 (online),
Additional supporting files
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