Downscaling SSP-consistent global spatial urban land projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km resolution 2000–2100

Long-term, spatial urban land projections that simultaneously offer global coverage and local-scale empirical accuracy are rare. Recently a set of such projections was produced using data-science-based simulations and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). these projections update at decadal time intervals from 2000 to 2100 with a spatial resolution of 1/8 degree, while many socio-environmental studies customarily run their analysis and modelling at finer spatial resolutions, e.g. 1-km. Here we develop and validate an algorithm to downscale the 1/8-degree spatial urban land projections to the 1-km resolution. The algorithm uses an iterative process to allocate the decadal amount of urban land expansion originally projected for each 1/8-degree grid to its constituent 1-km grids. The results are a set of global maps showing urban land fractions at the 1-km resolution, updated at decadal intervals from 2000 to 2100, under five different urban land expansion scenarios consistent with the SSPs. The data can support studies of potential interactions between future urbanization and environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales. This dataset (Gao and Pesaresi, 2020) is downloadable at https://doi.org/10.7927/1z4r-ez63

GAO Jing;  PESARESI Martino; 

2025-05-08

NATURE PORTFOLIO

JRC122243

2052-4463 (online),   

https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-021-01052-0,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC122243,   

10.1038/s41597-021-01052-0 (online),