Eurodelta multi-model simulated and observed particulate matter trends in Europe in the period of 1990–2010

The Eurodelta-Trends (EDT) multi-model experiment, aimed at assessing the efficiency of emission mitigation measures in improving air quality in Europe during 1990–2010, was designed to answer a series of questions regarding European pollution trends; i.e. were there significant trends detected by observations? Do the models manage to reproduce observed trends? How close is the agreement between the models and how large are the deviations from observations? In this paper, we address these issues with respect to particulate matter (PM) pollution. An in-depth trend analysis has been performed for PM10 and PM2.5 for the period of 2000–2010, based on results from six chemical transport models and observational data from the EMEP (Cooperative Programme for Monitoring and Evaluation of the Long-range Transmission of Air Pollutants in Europe) monitoring network. Given harmonization of set-up and main input data, the differences in model results should mainly result from differences in the process formulations within the models themselves, and the spread in the model-simulated trends could be regarded as an indicator for modelling uncertainty. The model ensemble simulations indicate overall decreasing trends in PM10 and PM2.5 from 2000 to 2010, with the total reductions of annual mean concentrations by between 2 and 5 (7 for PM10) µg m−3 (or between 10 % and 30 %) across most of Europe (by 0.5–2 µg m−3 in Fennoscandia, the north-west of Russia and eastern Europe) during the studied period.

TSYRO S.;  AAS W.;  COLETTE Augustin;  ANDERSSON Camilla;  BESSAGNET Bertrand;  CIARELLI Giancarlo;  COUVIDAT Florian;  CUVELIER Cornelis;  MANDERS-GROOT Astrid;  MAR Kathleen;  MIRCEA M.;  OTERO Noelia;  PAY Maria-Teresa;  RAFFORT Valentin;  ROUSTAN Yelva;  THEOBALD Mark R.;  GARCIA VIVANCO Marta;  FAGERLI H.;  WIND P.;  BRIGANTI G.;  CAPPELLETTI A.;  D'ISIDORO Massimo;  ADANI Mario; 

2022-06-09

COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH

JRC124832

1680-7316 (online),   

https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/22/7207/2022,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC124832,   

10.5194/acp-22-7207-2022 (online),