Effects of the Extreme Meteorological Conditions in 2018 on European Methane Emissions Estimated using Atmospheric Inversions

This study examines methane (CH4) emissions for Europe calculated from four atmospheric inversion frameworks for 2005 to 2018 and, in particular, focuses on the effect of the extreme meteorological conditions in 2018. We find a positive anomaly in the emissions for the Netherlands in spring, which coincided with positive temperature and soil moisture anomalies, indicating changes in biogenic sources as a likely cause. In addition, we find a negative emission anomaly for the Netherlands in October, which coincided with a negative anomaly in soil moisture, again suggesting changes in biogenic sources. We also found significant emission anomalies for Serbia with higher than usual emissions in spring, summer and autumn. The spring anomaly coincided with elevated temperature, while that for summer coincided with elevated soil moisture, again suggesting biogenic sources as the likely cause. Moreover, the annual emission for Serbia for 2018 was higher by 0.16 Tg y-1 (36%) than the mean for 2005 to 2017. These results indicate that CH4 emissions from regions where the natural source is thought to be relatively small can still be quite variable due to meteorological conditions, which may in extreme cases even affect the annual national emissions. It is important to consider the effects of meteorology on CH4 emissions when comparing top-down estimates with emission inventories to avoid erroneously attributing changes in emissions due to meteorology to changes in human activity.

THOMPSON Rona;  ZWAAFTINK Groot;  BRUNNER D.;  TSURUTA Aki;  AALTO A.;  RAIVONEN M.;  CRIPPA Monica;  SOLAZZO Efisio;  GUIZZARDI Diego;  REGNIER Pierre;  MAISONNIER M.; 

2022-01-31

ROYAL SOC

JRC124952

1364-503X (online),   

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsta.2020.0443,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC124952,   

10.1098/rsta.2020.0443 (online),