Environmental and anthropogenic driven transitions in the demersal ecosystem of Cantabrian Sea

In the framework of global human-induced change, marine communities’ often respond to changing conditions abruptly reorganizing into new intricate equilibrium. These shifts are difficult to predict and imply irreversible adjustments due to hysteresis. Unraveling the role of the forces leading regime shifts is a major challenge. We explored the temporal evolution of a selection of fish species representing the Cantabrian bentho-demersal community in response to warming and fishing pressure in 1983-2018, using survey data. Via multivariate analysis and non-additive modeling of a community index and the system’s main stressors two decadal-scale regimes were revealed, suggesting a non-linear response of the community to the effects of overfishing and climate change. The Integrated Resilience Assessment (IRA) framework elucidated the response mechanism to the candidate stressors and allowed quantifying resilience dynamics. Fishing pressure’s decline in the 1990s was associated with a gradual transition of the system, while further decline during the 2000s eroded the resilience of the system-stressor coupling, leading to a discontinuous response expressed as an abrupt, possibly irreversible shift in 2010s. Given the teleconnected character of marine ecosystems, despite its regional character, this study provides the scientific basis for actions facing the dynamic impacts of climate change on exploited marine ecosystems.

POLO Julia;  PUNZON Antonio;  VASILAKOPOULOS Paraskevas;  SOMAVILLA Raquel;  HIDALGO Manuel; 

2022-09-30

OXFORD UNIV PRESS

JRC125546

1054-3139 (online),   

https://academic.oup.com/icesjms/article/79/7/2017/6648917,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC125546,   

10.1093/icesjms/fsac125 (online),