Building a resilient and sustainable agricultural sector requires the development and implementation of tailored climate change adaptation strategies. By focusing on durum wheat (Triticum turgidum subsp. durum) in the Euro-Mediterranean region, we estimate the benefits of adapting through seasonal cultivar-selection supported by an idealised agro-climate service based on seasonal climate forecasts. The cost of inaction in terms of mean yield losses, in 2021–2040, ranges from −7.8% to −5.8% associated with a 7% to 12% increase in interannual variability. Supporting cultivar choices at local scale may alleviate these impacts and even turn them into gains, from 0.4% to 5.3%, as soon as the performance of the agroclimate service increases. However, adaptation advantages on mean yield may come with doubling the estimated increase in the interannual yield variability
TORETI Andrea;
BASSU Simona;
ASSENG Senthold;
ZAMPIERI Matteo;
CEGLAR Andrej;
ROYO Conxita;
2022-12-15
NATURE PORTFOLIO
JRC126213
2399-3642 (online),
https://www.nature.com/articles/s42003-022-04189-9#citeas,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC126213,
10.1038/s42003-022-04189-9 (online),
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