Evidence from the past and scenarios for the future
The report quantifies exposed and vulnerable populations to climate change in Africa based on climate, demographic and socio-economic scenarios and analyses past trends, to detect statically significant associations between net migration and climate. It follows a spatial demographic approach and covers the entire territory of Africa with data and projections at high geographical resolution spanning from 1975 to 2100. These macro analyses are complemented by case studies looking at the relation between climate change displacement and urbanization in Egypt, drought migration in the Sahel regions and the role of conflicts in Sudan and South Sudan. Finally, the report considers individual perspectives using survey data on the perceptions in Africa about climate change and the desire to migrate.
The findings of this report support the ongoing integration of EU policymaking on climate change, adaptation and migration. Specifically, it highlights the importance of further mainstreaming an understanding of climate change processes into demographic processes and adaptation actions at a local level.
MCMAHON Simon;
TINTORI Guido;
PEREZ FERNANDEZ Marta;
ALESSANDRINI Alfredo;
GOUJON Anne;
GHIO Daniela;
PETROLIAGKIS Thomas;
CONTE Alessandra;
MINORA Umberto;
KALANTARYAN Sona;
MIGALI Silvia;
NATALE Fabrizio;
2021-11-10
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC126594
978-92-76-43305-7 (online),
978-92-76-43304-0 (print),
1831-9424 (online),
1018-5593 (print),
EUR 30881 EN,
OP KJ-NA-30881-EN-N (online),
OP KJ-NA-30881-EN-C (print),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC126594,
10.2760/77546 (online),
10.2760/4151 (print),
