Built-up areas are expanding faster than population growth: regional patterns and trajectories in Europe

Human settlements typically expand to accommodate additional housing demand from a growing population and their socio-economic activities. This implies consumption of land, a limited resource necessary for many other goods and services. The efficiency of this exploitation in relation to demographic trends is key to preserve soils and natural capital that could otherwise be lost or degraded. Here we assess recent (2000 – 2015) patterns of population and built-up growth, the latter assessed through remote sensing. We find that built-up areas have been growing at a faster pace than population on average for the EU27 and that built-up areas expand even where population declines. We quantify the impact of future population growth under different assumptions on future built-up efficiency. Keeping current built-up per capita fixed could preserve up to 9,000 km2 of land until 2030, mostly in predominantly rural and intermediate regions, where land use efficiency is low and has been declining.

SCHIAVINA Marcello;  MELCHIORRI Michele;  CORBAN Christina;  CARNEIRO FREIRE Sergio Manuel;  BATISTA E SILVA Filipe; 

2022-04-22

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD

JRC126757

1747-423X (online),   

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/1747423X.2022.2055184,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC126757,   

10.1080/1747423X.2022.2055184 (online),