Excess mortality attributed to heat and cold: a health impact assessment study in 854 cities in Europe

Heat and cold are established environmental risk factors for human health. However, mapping the related health burden is a difficult task due to the complexity of the associations and the differences in vulnerability and demographic distributions. In this study, we did a comprehensive mortality impact assessment due to heat and cold in European urban areas, considering geographical differences and age-specific risks. We included urban areas across Europe between Jan 1, 2000, and Dec 12, 2019, using the Urban Audit dataset of Eurostat and adults aged 20 years and older living in these areas. Data were extracted from Eurostat, the Multi-country Multi-city Collaborative Research Network, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer, and Copernicus. We applied a three-stage method to estimate risks of temperature continuously across the age and space dimensions, identifying patterns of vulnerability on the basis of city-specific characteristics and demographic structures. Maps of mortality risks and excess deaths indicate geographical differences, such as a north–south gradient and increased vulnerability in eastern Europe, as well as local variations due to urban characteristics. The modelling framework and results are crucial for the design of national and local health and climate policies and for projecting the effects of cold and heat under future climatic and socioeconomic scenarios.

MASSELOT Pierre;  MISTRY Malcolm;  VANOLI Jacopo;  SCHNEIDER Rochelle;  IUNGMAN Tamara;  GARCIA LEON David;  CISCAR MARTINEZ Juan Carlos;  FEYEN Luc;  ORRU Hans;  URBAN Aleš;  BREITNER Susanne;  HUBER Veronika;  SCHNEIDER Alexandra;  SAMOLI E;  STAFOGGIA Massimo;  DE'DONATO Francesca;  RAO Shilpa;  ARMSTRONG Ben;  NIEUWENHUIJSEN Mark;  VICEDO-CABRERA Ana Maria;  GASPARRINI Antonio; 

2023-05-08

ELSEVIER SCI LTD

JRC130518

2542-5196 (online),   

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2542519623000232?via%3Dihub,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC130518,   

10.1016/S2542-5196(23)00023-2 (online),