Evaluation of CMIP6 model performances in simulating fire weather spatiotemporal variability on global and regional scales
Weather and climate play an important role in shaping global wildfire regimes and geographical distributions of
burnable area. As projected by the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC-AR6), in the near future, fire danger is likely to increase in many regions due to warmer temperatures and drier
conditions. General Circulation Models (GCMs) are an important resource in understanding how fire danger will evolve in a
changing climate but, to date, the development of fire risk scenarios has not fully accounted for systematic GCM errors and
biases. This study presents a comprehensive global evaluation of the spatiotemporal representation of fire weather indicators
from the Canadian Forest Fire Weather Index System simulated by 16 GCMs from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison
Project (CMIP6). While at the global scale, the ensemble mean is able to represent variability, magnitude and spatial extent
of different fire weather indicators reasonably well when compared to the latest global fire reanalysis, there is considerable
regional and seasonal dependence in the performance of each GCM.
GALLO Carolina;
EDEN Jonathan;
DIEPPOIS Bastien;
DROBYSHEV Igor;
FULE Peter;
SAN-MIGUEL-AYANZ Jesus;
BLACKETT Mathew;
2023-09-18
COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH
JRC131061
1991-959X (online),
https://gmd.copernicus.org/articles/16/3103/2023/,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC131061,
10.5194/gmd-16-3103-2023 (online),
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