This report introduces the revised Global Conflict Risk Index (GCRI) and documents the changes and improvements made in the latest update. Our work involved a thorough revision of the GCRI's input data and methodology that resulted in the following changes: (1) We adopted a new set of conflict definitions for the outcome variable. (2) Significantly reduced missing values by replacing several input data sources. (3) Selected a new modelling framework for conflict intensities following a systematic comparison of 14 probability and intensity models. (4) Improved the GCRI's forecasts by incorporating short-term projections of predictor variables. We demonstrate that these revisions improved the GCRI's predictive performance. We conclude with a discussion of limitations and tasks for further research.
SCHVITZ Guy;
CORBAN Christina;
VAN DAMME Marie-Sophie;
GALARIOTIS Ioannis;
VALLI Igor;
2022-12-07
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC131326
978-92-76-60169-2 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 31330 EN,
OP KJ-NA-31-330-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC131326,
10.2760/041759 (online),
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