Quality assessment of the 2021 European Union JRC MARS Crop Yield Forecasts
This report provides an assessment of the quality of the forecasts done during the 2021 growing season with the MARS-Crop Yield Forecasting System (MCYFS) for the European crop monitoring and yield forecasting activities (see Van der Velde et al., 2019a). The Joint Research Centre (JRC) of the European Commission (EC) forecasts crop yields and production across all European Union (EU) Member States (MS). This is done to anticipate production levels and contribute to the management of agricultural markets with adequate, timely, and coherent information – implementing Article 22 of the EU regulation (2013) 1306 on Monitoring Agricultural Resources. The JRC crop yield forecasts are reported each month in the JRC MARS Bulletin, along with agro-meteorological analyses and country-specific overviews of crop conditions. Please consult the JRC MARS Bulletins (https://ec.europa.eu/jrc/en/mars/bulletins) to evaluate the development of the agro-meteorological conditions in 2020 along with the forecasts that were made.
Assessing the quality of these forecasts is critical (see Van der Velde et al., 2019b) under expected as well as extreme conditions (Van der Velde et al., 2018). The evolution of the quality of the forecasts during the growing season as well as the final or end-of-campaign forecasts (as reported in October 2021) have been evaluated at Member State (MS) and EU-27, EU-14, and EU-13 level for 14 crops and 8 published Bulletins. The assessment for rice is also reported.
NISINI SCACCHIAFICHI Luigi;
VAN DER VELDE Marijn;
2023-01-17
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC131827
978-92-76-61584-2 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 31371 EN,
OP KJ-NA-31-371-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC131827,
10.2760/317403 (online),
Additional supporting files
| File name | Description | File type | |
|---|
