Global estimates of net migration at high spatial resolution 1975-2020
This report describes a set of global net migration estimates in five-year intervals from 1975 to 2020 at a spatial resolution of about 1 km. Our estimates rely on an indirect estimation technique based on the demographic balancing equation. Compared to existing sets of estimates of spatially disaggregated net migration, three novelties characterise our new estimates. First, we expand the time coverage of the estimates by using updated population data at high spatial resolution from the JRC GHSL project. Second, we apply a standard definition of rural-urban typologies in the three classes of cities, towns, and rural areas. Third, we refine the estimation approach by accounting for variation of fertility and mortality across these typologies. This provides a more accurate representation of demographic behaviour across the rural-urban continuum. Validation exercises show that the new approach of accounting for fertility and mortality differences at sub-national level is consistent with basic empirical findings. In addition, the mobility patterns revealed by our net migration estimates are consistent with net migration data at sub-national level derived from Eurostat and national statistical offices. In line with former analyses, the new set of estimates allow analysing the relationship between climate change and migration at high spatial resolution and exploring geographical patterns of urbanisation, rural-urban migration, and population redistribution at the global level.
ALESSANDRINI Alfredo;
DEUSTER Christoph;
NATALE Fabrizio;
2023-03-02
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC132876
978-92-68-00335-0 (online),
OP KJ-07-23-111-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC132876,
10.2760/06672 (online),
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