Beyond the Farm to Fork Strategy: Methodology for designing a European agro-ecological future

The EU Farm to Fork Strategy has sparked a debate about the future of European agriculture. We used the GRAFS accounting methodology to describe the agri-food system of Europe in terms of nitrogen (N) fluxes across cropland, grassland, livestock, and human consumption. This analysis reveals for Europe a high level of territorial specialization, a strong dependence on long distance trade, and considerable environmental N losses. Three scenarios for the European agri-food system were explored for 2050 by the GRAFS approach: a business-as-usual scenario, a scenario based on the recommendations of the EU Farm to Fork Strategy, and a fully agro-ecological scenario. The results show that the Farm to Fork scenario reduces the dependence of Europe on imports of synthetic fertilizers and feed resources as well as the environmental N losses, but not to the level of its claimed ambitions. Of the three scenarios, only in the agro-ecological scenario, involving the relocation of feed production, the generalization of organic crop rotations with N fixing legume crops and a shift of agricultural production and food consumption toward less animal-based products, would Europe be able to dispense with N imports, still being able to export some cereals, meat and milk products to the rest of the world, while halving reactive N emissions to the environment.

BILLEN Gilles;  AGUILERA Eduardo;  EINARSSON Rasmus;  GARNIER Josette;  GINGRICH Simone;  GRIZZETTI Bruna;  LASSALETTA Luis;  LE NOË Julia;  SANZ-COBENA Alberto; 

2023-11-23

ELSEVIER

JRC133754

0048-9697 (online),   

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969723067876,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC133754,   

10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168160 (online),