Anticipatory analysis of the El Niño - Southern Oscillation
Intro to the phenomenon, forecasted intensity (July-November 2023), geographical scope and potential impact
El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a naturally occurring irregular, periodic large-scale oscillation of the climate system over the tropical eastern Pacific. It is one of the most important sources of interannual variability (and predictability) of the climate system on Earth due to its ability to change the global atmospheric circulation. ENSO warm events (El Niño) and cold events (La Niña) occur roughly every 2–7 years.
The spring of 2023 witnessed the return of the ENSO positive phase (El Niño) by positive sea surface temperature anomalies in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. Warm water is transported from the western Pacific towards the west coast of South America during an El Niño, accompanied by decreased easterly trade winds. The phenomenon can have significant consequences across a vast area, frequently bringing colder, wetter weather to the Southwest of the United States and drought to nations in the western Pacific, like Australia and Indonesia. El Niño favours stronger hurricane activity in the central and eastern Pacific basins, whereas it is suppressed in the Atlantic basin.
This report is provided to the Emergency Response Coordination Centre (ERRC) of Directorate-General for European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations (DG ECHO) as an anticipatory analysis of the ENSO, with the scope of characterising the phenomenon in terms of geographical scope and potential impact and its forecasted intensity (July-November 2023).
SANTINI Marzia;
BARANTIEV Damyan;
ABAD PEREZ Jaime;
ACOSTA NAVARRO Juan;
DESTRO Elisa;
KEMPER Thomas;
MARI RIVERO Ines;
MARZI Sepehr;
MASTRONUNZIO Marco;
POLJANSEK Karmen;
SALAMON Peter;
SALVITTI Valerio;
TORETI Andrea;
2023-08-29
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC134435
978-92-68-07100-7 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 31645 EN,
OP KJ-NA-31-645-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC134435,
10.2760/369462 (online),
Additional supporting files
| File name | Description | File type | |
|---|
