Chapter 1.3: Tipping points in the Biosphere

Human-driven habitat loss, pollution, exploitation, and increasingly climate change are degrading ecosystems across the planet, some of which can pass tipping points beyond which a ‘regime shift’ to an alternative (and often less diverse or beneficial) ecosystem state occurs. Evidence for tipping points emerges across many biomes. In forests, large parts of the Amazon rainforest could tip to degraded forest or impoverished savanna, while tipping in boreal forests is possible but more uncertain, and whether current temperate forest disturbance could lead to tipping is unclear. In open savannas and drylands, drying could lead to desertification in some areas, while in others encroachment by trees and shrubs could see these biodiverse ecosystems shift to a forested or degraded state. Nutrient pollution and warming can trigger lakes to switch to an algae-dominated low-oxygen state. Coral reefs are already experiencing tipping points, as more frequent warming-driven bleaching events along with pollution, extreme weather events, and diseases tip them to degraded algae-dominated states. Mangroves and seagrasses are at risk of regional tipping, along with kelp forests, and some fisheries. Together these tipping points threaten the livelihoods of millions of people. Stabilising emissions is critical for reducing the likelihood of widespread ecosystem tipping points, but tackling other pressures can also help increase ecological resilience, push back tipping, and support human wellbeing.

MCKAY David A.;  SAKSCHEWSKI Boris;  ROMAN CUESTA Rosa Maria;  DAKOS Vasilis;  FLORES Bernardo M;  HESSEN Dagg O.;  HIROTA Marina;  KEFI Sonia;  OBURA David;  REYER Christopher P.O;  STAVER Carla;  THOM Dominik;  ABIS Beniamino;  AMARAL Cibele;  ANDERSEN Tom;  BATHIANY Sebastian;  BEAUGRAND Gregory;  BLENCKNER Thorsten;  BROVKIN Victor;  BERDUGO Miguel;  DELGADO-BOQUERIZO Manuel;  DEXTER Kyle G.;  DRUKE Markus;  DUKE Norman C;  FRIESS Daniel;  HERRERA SILVEIRA Jorge A.;  BILL-WEILANDT Alina;  GUIRADO Emilio;  HOLMGREN Milena;  KOSTEN Sarian;  LOVELOCK Catherine;  MAYOR Angeles;  MAYOR Daniel J;  MCFIELD Melanie;  MEERHOFF Mariana;  MUÑIZ-CASTILLO Aarón Israel;  NIIRANEN Susa;  PATON Steve;  PEARCE-KELLY Paul;  PUEYO-ESTAUN Yolanda;  ROCHA Juan;  ROMAGNONI Giovanni;  SANABRIA-FERNANDEZ Jose A;  SGUOTTI Camilla;  SPEARS Bryan M.;  STAAL Arie;  STEVENS Nicola;  TARLING Geraint;  WILTSHIRE Andy; 

2025-11-21

University of Exeter

JRC135350

https://report-2023.global-tipping-points.org/,    https://report-2023.global-tipping-points.org/section1/1-earth-system-tipping-points/1-3-tipping-points-in-the-biosphere/,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC135350,   

10.5281/zenodo.15188117 (online),