Unveiling spatial patterns of West Nile virus emergence in northern Greece, 2010–2023

The Region of Central Macedonia (RCM) in Northern Greece has the highest number of West Nile Virus (WNV) human cases in Greece, despite considerable mosquito control actions taken in the region. We examine spatial association and clustering throughout the municipalities in this region over the period 2010-2023 and assess climatic characteristics associated with the circulation of the virus.We combined available epidemiological and entomological data at the municipality level. We 19 used three statistical approaches to identify groups of municipalities with a strong association of 20 mosquito abundances, presence of WNV and human cases. Specifically, we determined the 21 Pearson Correlation Coefficient, and we applied hierarchical clustering to identify multiannual 22 correlation, while Local and Global Moran's I was used to assess global clustering across the study 23 area between adjacent municipalities data. Also, a generalized linear mixed model was used to 24 estimate the influence of seasonal temperature anomalies to our data. The exploration revealed 25 different clusters of municipalities with strong association in annual abundance, percentage of 26 positive mosquitoes and human WNV cases. In addition, a spatial autocorrelation analysis for each 27 year during the observation period exhibited strong clustering of adjacent municipalities for 28 several years. A geographic pattern of high-value clustering was detected in the Western part of 29 the region, while one municipality can be characterized as a “hot-spot”. The results indicated a 30 strong dependence of the virus circulation on spring temperature anomaly.

ANGELOU Anastasia;  SCHUH Lea;  STILIANAKIS Nikolaos;  MOURELATOS Spiros;  KIOUTSIOUKIS Ioannis; 

2024-09-11

ELSEVIER

JRC136961

2352-7714 (online),   

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100888,    https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2352771424002143,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC136961,   

10.1016/j.onehlt.2024.100888 (online),