Low Fertility in the EU: A Review of Trends and Drivers
Fertility levels in EU countries have been low for half a century, below the level of 2.1 children per woman that is generally needed to maintain a stable population, and are projected to remain low in the future. Drivers of low fertility can be related to socio-economic developments, increasing gender equality, rising levels of education of women, changes in partnering and social norms, and the process of postponement of parenthood. The review of empirical evidence for the EU regarding such drivers in this policy brief offers partial and at times unexpected explanations. The lack of a comprehensive theory to explain low fertility makes it not only difficult to project the future course of fertility in the EU but also to determine to what extent fertility policies can and have been effective. There is a need to invest further into comparative research with EU wide coverage to better understand not only the causes of observed fertility levels across EU countries but also the gaps between desired and realised family goals. Achieving higher births rates in the EU above very low levels of 1.5 births per women by reducing such gaps can help to mitigate the challenges related to an ageing population. Yet, major policy efforts are needed now to adapt to the economic and social change in a low fertility, longevity society.
BIGNAMI Simona;
ENDRICH Marek;
NATALE Fabrizio;
UEFFING Philipp;
2024-04-09
European Commission
JRC137492
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