The geography of EU discontent and the regional development trap

n/a

While in recent times many regions have flourished, many others are stuck —or are at risk of becoming stuck— in a development trap. Such regions experience decline in economic growth, employment, and productivity relative to their neighbours and to their own past trajectories. Prolonged periods in development traps are leading to political dissatisfaction and unrest.. Such discontent is often translated into support for anti-system parties at the ballot box. In this paper we study the link between the risk, intensity, and length of regional development traps and the rise of discontent in the European Union (EU) —proxied by the support for Eurosceptic parties in national elections between 2014 and 2022— using an econometric analysis at a regional level. The results highlight the strong connection between being stuck in a development trap, often in middle- or high-income regions, and support for Eurosceptic parties. They also suggest that the longer the period of stagnation, the stronger the support for parties opposed to European integration. This relationship is also robust to considering only the most extreme Eurosceptic parties or to including parties that display more moderate levels of Euroscepticism.

RODRIGUEZ-POSE Andrés;  DIJKSTRA Lewis;  POELMAN Hugo; 

2024-11-25

TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD

JRC137517

1944-8287 (online),   

https://doi.org/10.1080/00130095.2024.2337657,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC137517,   

10.1080/00130095.2024.2337657 (online),