Drought in Southern Africa
April 2024
• A severe drought is currently affecting southern Africa and the Zambezi basin, with extremely dry and warm conditions from October 2023 to March 2024.
• Heatwaves are exacerbating the impact of the lack of precipitation, and the average temperature is abnormally high registering record values since 1960.
• Soil moisture and vegetation conditions are severely affected, with negative anomalies over large areas of the region.
• The Zambezi river is at its lowest discharge for the season corresponding to about 20% of the long-term average.
• Crops have been affected as the extreme conditions occurred in the most critical period of the growing season, with severe economic and social impacts. River flow forecasts suggest that these impacts are likely to get worse.
• Crop damages and losses have caused the IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) Acute Food Insecurity to range from stressed to crisis level (i.e. IPC Phase 2 and 3) in most of Zambezi basin regions.
• Wildfire danger is high in Namibia, Botswana, and north-western South Africa.
• Hydropower production is severely affected
• Seasonal forecasts point definitively to warmer than average months. Early April 2024 precipitation shifts the seasonal forecast towards wetter values but according to May-June-July forecast dry conditions are expected after this temporary relief. Close monitoring of the drought evolution and proper water use plans are needed.
TORETI Andrea;
BAVERA Davide;
ACOSTA NAVARRO Juan;
ACQUAFRESCA Laura;
ASEGA C.;
BARBOSA Paulo;
COLLIVIGNARELLI Francesco;
COMBERE W.S.;
DE JAGER Alfred;
FIORAVANTI Guido;
GRIMALDI Stefania;
HRAST ESSENFELDER Arthur;
KABENGELA H.;
KAMSU-TAMO P H;
LAWAL K;
MAGNI Diego;
MAZZESCHI Marco;
MCCORMICK Niall;
MERONI Michele;
NKURUNZIZA R.S.;
NSHIMIRIMANA G.;
REMBOLD Felix;
SALAMON Peter;
2024-04-19
Publications Office of the European Union
JRC137785
978-92-68-14915-7 (online),
1831-9424 (online),
EUR 31913 EN,
OP KJ-NA-31-913-EN-N (online),
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC137785,
10.2760/960341 (online),
Additional supporting files
| File name | Description | File type | |
|---|
