Influence of hydrogen transportation and conversion costs on its outreach as a traded fuel in global decarbonisation scenarios

This paper investigates the currently unclear role of hydrogen trade within global decarbonisation scenarios. The JRC global energy model Prospective Outlook on Long-term Energy Systems (POLES-JRC) is applied to examine the potential long-term development of hydrogen demand and supply, both domestic and traded, in deep decarbonisation scenarios. Hydrogen trade is analysed from a purely economic perspective, focusing on the trade of green and other low-carbon hydrogen via either pipeline or shipping (as liquid hydrogen or ammonia) between 66 world countries/regions. Although hydrogen plays a limited role under deep decarbonisation scenarios, this energy vector is an important decarbonisation lever in a few sectors, such as transport. The trade results show that most hydrogen is supplied domestically, as transportation costs and the costs associated with hydrogen conversion outweigh lower production costs from exporting countries. The consumption of significant amounts of e-fuels further limits the role of hydrogen trade as e-fuels are much easier to transport. Of the hydrogen that is traded, the bulk is between neighbouring regions, arriving via pipeline rather than by long-distance shipping.

SCHADE Burkhard;  KERAMIDAS Kimon;  SCHMITZ Andreas;  DIAZ RINCON Andrea;  DOWLING Paul;  FOSSE Florian;  PETROVIC Stefan;  RUSS Hans Peter;  SORIA RAMIREZ Antonio; 

2025-11-26

IOP Publishing Ltd, United Kingdom

JRC137862

2753-3751 (online),   

https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/2753-3751/adfadd,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC137862,   

10.1088/2753-3751/adfadd (online),