How do diet shifts affect the greenhouse gas balance of agricultural soils? Denmark as a case study

Current food systems account for approximately 30% of anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and therefore, consumers' dietary preferences can have strong consequences for the environment. This is well known for the GHG mitigation achieved by reducing animal protein consumption and associated methane emissions. However, the effects of diet shifts for the soil GHG balance have not been comprehensively evaluated yet. In this study, we employed a two- sided approach to investigate the impact of dietary changes following the EAT-Lancet diet guidelines on GHG emissions from agricultural soils. Firstly, we used the outputs of the economic general equilibrium model MAGNET to quantify the demand-driven changes in food consumption at the national level for the European Union (EU) under a diet shift scenario. We then employed the DayCent biogeochemical processbased model to assess the implications for the GHG balance of agricultural soils at a regional scale, with Denmark as a case study. Our findings indicate that, compared to business-asusual diets, the adoption of the EAT-Lancet reference diet would cause agricultural soils to experience significant carbon loss (up to 15 Mg of CO2e ha-1 ), and a potential increase in direct N2O emissions by 5.8% (141.9 Gg CO2e y-1 ), from 2030 to 2100. These changes primarily stem from the reduction in animal manure application to soil and a decrease in the share of permanent grasslands. The soil GHG balance differed largely across pedo-climatic conditions. These findings underscore the challenges faced by policies aiming to create healthier food environments, which need to be aligned with efforts to reduce anthropogenic GHG emissions and protect agricultural soils

MICHAILIDIS Vasileios;  LUGATO Emanuele;  GRADOS Diego;  PANAGOS Panos;  FREUND Florian;  JONES Arwyn;  ABALOS Diego; 

2025-02-03

Aarhus Univeristy

JRC137947