More renewable energy leads to a faster transition at lower cost as revealed by comparative analysis of global energy transition scenarios

Energy transition scenarios are crucial for policymakers and other stakeholders aiming to develop sustainable energy systems. However, assessing scenario results from different modelling platforms can be challenging, as they can apply wide ranges of input data and assumptions. We develop a new methodology to harmonise global energy transition scenarios among three modelling groups that can address challenges caused by inconsistencies across models. Two scenarios from the International Energy Agency (IEA), two from Teske/DLR, and three from the LUT Energy System Transition Model targeting net-zero emissions by 2035, 2040, and 2050 are compared. Our results indicate that LUT scenarios have the fastest emissions reduction at the lowest cost, whereas Teske/DLR scenarios rely on a diverse energy supply to achieve emissions reductions. The IEA scenarios provide the least ambitious results that are more expensive than LUT scenarios, indicating that widespread use of renewable energy with storage and flexibility leads to both economically and environmentally beneficial outcomes.

AGHAHOSSEINI Arman;  SOLOMON A.A.;  BARDI Ugo;  CREUTZIG Felix;  HOEKSTRA Auke;  JACOBSON Mark Z.;  JAEGER-WALDAU Arnulf;  LOPEZ Gabriel;  BREYER Christian; 

2026-03-27

INST ENGINEERING TECHNOLOGY-IET

JRC138105

1752-1424 (online),   

https://ietresearch.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1049/rpg2.70225,    https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC138105,   

10.1049/rpg2.70225 (online),