Climate change is increasing the frequency and intensity of wildfires globally, with significant
impacts on society and the environment. However, our understanding of the global distribution
of extreme fires remains skewed, primarily influenced by media coverage and regional
research concentration. This inaugural State of Wildfires report systematically analyses fire
activity worldwide, identifying extreme events from the March 2023-February 2024 fire season.
We assess the causes, predictability, and attribution of these events to climate change and
land use, and forecast future risks under different climate scenarios. During the 2023-24 fire
season, 3.9 million km² burned globally, slightly below the average of previous seasons, but
fire carbon (C) emissions were 16% above average, totaling 2.4 Pg C. This was driven by
record emissions in Canadian boreal forests (over 9 times the average) and dampened by
reduced activity in African savannahs. Notable events included record-breaking wildfire extent
and emissions in Canada, the largest recorded wildfire in the European Union (Greece), drought-driven fires in western Amazonia and northern 115 parts of South America, and deadly
fires in Hawai’i (100 deaths) and Chile (131 deaths). Over 232,000 people were evacuated in
Canada alone, highlighting the severity of human impact. Our analyses revealed that multiple
drivers were needed to cause areas of extreme fire activity. In Canada and Greece a
combination of high fire weather and an abundance of dry fuels increased the probability of
fires by 4.5-fold and 1.9-4.1-fold, respectively, whereas fuel load and direct human
suppression often modulated areas with anomalous burned area. The fire season in Canada
was predictable three months in advance based on the fire weather index, whereas events in
Greece and Amazonia had shorter predictability horizons. Formal attribution analyses
indicated that the probability of extreme events has increased significantly due to
anthropogenic climate change, with a 2.9-3.6-fold increase in likelihood of high fire weather in
Canada and a 20.0-28.5-fold increase in Amazonia. By the end of the century, events of similar
magnitude are projected to occur 2.22-9.58 times more frequently in Canada under high
emission scenarios. Without mitigation, regions like Western Amazonia could see up to a 2.9-
fold increase in extreme fire events. For the 2024-25 fire season, seasonal forecasts highlight
moderate positive anomalies in fire weather for parts of western Canada and South America,
but no clear signal for extreme anomalies is present in the forecast. This report represents our
first annual effort to catalogue extreme wildfire events, explain their occurrence, and predict
future risks. By consolidating state-of-the-art wildfire science and delivering key insights
relevant to policymakers, disaster management services, firefighting agencies, and land
managers, we aim to enhance society’s resilience to wildfires and promote advances in
preparedness, mitigation, and adaptation.
JONES Matthew W.;
KELLEY Douglas I.;
BURTON Changelle A.;
DI GIUSEPPE Francesca;
BARBOSA Maria Lucia F.;
BRAMBLEBY Esther;
HARTLEY Andrew J.;
LOMBARDI Anna;
MATAVELI Ghiherme;
MCNORTON Joe R.;
SPULER Fiona R.;
WESSEL Jakob B.;
ABATZOBLOU John T.;
ANDERSON Liana O.;
ANDELA Neils;
ARCHIBALD Sally;
ARMENTERAS Dolors;
ELEANOR Burke;
CARMENTA Rachel;
CHUVIECO Emilio;
HAMISH Clarke;
DOERR Stefan;
FERNANDES Paulo;
GIGLIO Louis;
HAMILTON Douglas;
HANTSON Stijn;
HARRIS Sarah;
JAIN Piyush;
KOLDEN Crystal A.;
KURVITS Tiina;
LAMPE Seppe;
MEIER Sarah;
NEW Stacey;
PARRINGTON Mark;
PERRON Morgane M.G.;
YUQUAN Qu;
RIBEIRO Natasha;
SAHARJO Bambang H.;
SAN-MIGUEL Jesus;
SHUMAN Jacquelyn K.;
TANPIPAT Veerachai;
VAN DER WERF G.R.;
VERAVERBEKE Sander;
XANTHOPOULOS Gavriil;
2024-12-05
COPERNICUS PUBLICATIONS
JRC138378
1866-3508 (online),
https://essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/3601/2024/,
https://publications.jrc.ec.europa.eu/repository/handle/JRC138378,
10.5194/essd-16-3601-2024 (online),
